As the festival moves ever closer still the team here have put some views together on how we go about picking our Members selections each day:
In form terms Cheltenham form & particularly Festival form is key, these are the biggest races of the year, forget about the 5th of 6 in the 2 grand handicap in January, you will be suprised how much a horse’s form can improve when there is £50,000 in prize money up for grabs for one of the few times of the year. Look back at old form, right back to last years festival, don’t be surprised to see history repeats itself. There are horses that only ever seem to run well at the big meetings, don’t stray from them just because recent form isn’t all it should be.
Although it is impossible to say for certain what the ground will be come the start, the wet winter will of made a difference, have horses been campaigned on ground that is too soft for them ideally? If so, how often? was it cased of drawing stumps in the beginning of January or were they persevered with ? if so there may well be a few very well handicapped horses who suddenly come back to life off lower marks when the moisture leaves the ground.
One of our favorite angles as we have said the festival is season defining in some cases, are you really going to try that step up/drop down in trip at the biggest meeting of all? Big risk to test the water, but on the other hand a significant and ballsy step up/drop in trip might just be the clue that this was the plan all along and all the rest were smokescreens. I.e Tidal Bay’s Arkle many moons ago, the first time he ever ran over fences over 2 miles was The Arkle itself, had been over further in his warm up races.
Multiple angles here, don’t always assume that every plot job has to have McCoy on. Most of the big jocks wan’t definitive plans/ max number of rides well in advance, so the can keep retainers/ do weights ect
on the contrary, most handicap plots come together at the last minute with them multiply entered and it is a case of using the best available, McCoy, Walsh, et al are likely to of been long booked in advance for other things by the time some of these come together, Look for use of experience on “strange” first time/ rare link ups.
Go big, & back what you fancy to your biggest stake you can afford per race, if you don’t save your biggest stakes for Cheltenham when do you use them? BET TO WIN ONLY.
No good gamble story ends with it coming second however much back you got…….!
It’s coming……..The Roar……..