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Racing News

20th Feb 2014

Betting guide Cheltenham Festival

As the festival moves ever closer still the team here have put some views together on how we go about picking our Members selections each day:

1. Form

In form terms Cheltenham form & particularly Festival form is key, these are the biggest races of the year, forget about the 5th of 6 in the 2 grand handicap in January, you will be suprised how much a horse’s form can improve when there is £50,000 in prize money up for grabs for one of the few times of the year. Look back at old form, right back to last years festival, don’t be surprised to see history repeats itself. There are horses that only ever seem to run well at the big meetings, don’t stray from them just because recent form isn’t all it should be.

2. Ground

Although it is impossible to say for certain what the ground will be come the start, the wet winter will of made a difference, have horses been campaigned on ground that is too soft for them ideally? If so, how often? was it cased of drawing stumps in the beginning of January or were they persevered with ? if so there may well be a few very well handicapped horses who suddenly come back to life off lower marks when the moisture leaves the ground.

3. Trip

One of our favorite angles as we have said the festival is season defining in some cases, are you really going to try that step up/drop down in trip at the biggest meeting of all? Big risk to test the water, but on the other hand a significant and ballsy step up/drop in trip might just be the clue that this was the plan all along and all the rest were smokescreens. I.e Tidal Bay’s Arkle many moons ago, the first time he ever ran over fences over 2 miles was The Arkle itself, had been over further in his warm up races.

4. Jockey

Multiple angles here, don’t always assume that every plot job has to have McCoy on. Most of the big jocks wan’t definitive plans/ max number of rides well in advance, so the can keep retainers/ do weights ect

on the contrary, most handicap plots come together at the last minute with them multiply entered and it is a case of using the best available, McCoy, Walsh, et al are likely to of been long booked in advance for other things by the time some of these come together, Look for use of experience on “strange” first time/ rare link ups.

Go big, & back what you fancy to your biggest stake you can afford per race, if you don’t save your biggest stakes for Cheltenham when do you use them? BET TO WIN ONLY.

No good gamble story ends with it coming second however much back you got…….!

It’s coming……..The Roar……..

30th Dec 2013

Ante Post Perils

The narrative of the annual Cheltenham festival’s seemingly ever increasing soap opera build up and it’s betting bed fellow - the ante post punt- are an ever more vivid topic for the bookie and punter alike. For the punter who scours for value, the short lived 6s on Hurricane Fly for the 2014 Champion Hurdle, were mana from heaven for those who are on. Likewise those thinking they had scooped the value on My Tent Or Yours or The New One have had a reality check - those Saturday evening odds of 3s the pair now look a bit tight given that Some bookmakers go 7/2 all 3 at the time of writing (Boylesports a standout 4/1 Hurricane Fly)

Are they likely to shorten significantly before the March madness? Doubtful. Are any challengers lurking in the double figure prices to threaten? Well possibly but both Annie Power and Un De Sceaux are trained by Willie Mullins and both are likely to be double if not triple entered. Very hard to see him watering down the World record breaking Fly’s chances by running a stablemate.
All this over the backdrop of the mighty but now Clinicly uncertain Sprinter Sacre. In my worthless opinion I would take the words ” possible to run again this season ” as a massive negative but the opposite seems to have happened, as he seems to have hardened into odds on again with 4/7 Paddy Power ‘WITH A RUN’ and 4/7 Bet365 without that insurance ! Madness! I would be very surprised if he does turn up at Cheltenham and wouldn’t be overly enthusiastic in his chances if he did, no training or gallop can substitute a race and if he does go to Cheltenham at all it is highly likely to be without a prep run. How that proposition sits with you I do not know but I wouldn’t like anything hefty on it. The only proviso is he is a remarkable horse with a fantastic trainer - doubtless the drama is over yet!

12th Dec 2013

Peterborough Chase - Huntingdon

A fantastic renewal of a race that has been won by some greats over the years, One Man, Edredon Bleu (who won it for 4 consecutive times), Best Mate, Racing Demon, Monets Garden, Deep Purple to name but a few.

Riverside Theatre had become not just difficult to assess but possibly difficult to place for trainer Nicky Henderson. Known to of had problems with ulcers and breathing in the past the consensus is/was, he is best fresh. Jimmy Nesbitt was on hand to see his charge and was made to go through all the emotions you could wish for in a top class race, after jumping ok without being spectacular he had begun to race lazily and at that point I thought for sure he was beaten, and if he finished the race he would of done well as the pendulum swung between stick pushed along jumps and stone in water like progress through a tightly packed and quality field, but, just turning in you got the sense that he was not so much running on empty, as still running on full, Barry urgings seemed to be working, and, 2 out he was on the inside in touch once again, with duelling leaders (Champion Court and Captain Chris) switched right by Geraghty after jumping the last he ran on strongly to deny and seemingly within himself to beat the the gallant pair with Champion Court looking unlucky as a slipped saddle saw Ian Popham on his backside after the line, and Captain Chris losing nothing in 3rd.

It possibly was the best time to catch him as was said but you can’t deny the performance was a smart one and was ran 13 and a bit seconds quicker than the mares chase won by stable mate Une Artiste earlier on the card.
What the plans are, only Nicky knows for now, but Boxing Day was not ruled out. You will struggle to see a better appetite wetter for the Cheltenham meeting that is upon us this weekend, Great days we do live.

FRIDAYS CHELTENHAM SELECTION CAN BE GOT HERE.

26th Apr 2013

www.1tipaday.co.uk

17th Feb 2013

SATURDAY 16TH

Probably the last Saturday of “trials” before the festival, if you run between now and then, it is probably because you need a) the match practice or b) the handicap mark. This can prove an interesting angle in looking at all runners entries come the second week of March.

Ascot staged a good card with a mixture of Handicaps and novices, topped off by the Ascot chase not a bad day in all, and a great start was made to it, for Donald McCain, who’s  UP AND GO scored nicely under a front running ride in the opener.

Paul Nicholls has always been keen on ROCKY CREEK and while he has seemed a bit in and out of form at a times you have to remember that PN was under a cloud all last spring, and, if any particular horse is a “spring” horse, it only makes sense that they should now be putting it all together possibly after nearly a full year’s worth of “poor” results, so ROCKY CREEK now being 5/8 is hardly the “dodge pot” people have labelled him.

No Saturday winner for Nicky Henderson but to be fair he didn’t run a great deal and those that he did have questions to answer now soundly beaten in the shape of FINIAN’S RAINBOW and RIVER MAIGUE respectively although, It seems to us that the trip with F.R and the slowly run race R.M put pay to their chances. F.R must be a very hard call as it seems very possible that he is better over shorter but the stable are quite well represented in the 2m department. It is nearly impossible to envisage how he could win a Champion Chase with SPRINTER SACRE in; Nicky has some good placing to do…..

Over at Wincanton, The ZARKANDAR dream lives on in a race he should of won however it struck us as quite a poor race with RAYA STAR running well below best and KYBER KIM running well after a long break. Can’t help thinking if HURRICANE FLY would have won that race had he been in it yesterday, as it is, ZARKANDAR goes to the Champion  unbeaten and he can do no more…..

Tip’s have not been far away with only a few out the money this week and 2 winners , we look to end the week on a high at Market Rasen, plus we still have loads of time left to get your Cheltenham festival previews. Sign/ log in if you are not a member and browse our packages. Check out the Champion Chase example.  Back tomorrow, with action from Carlisle, Southwell, and Wolverhampton.          

10th Feb 2013

New site up now see www.1tipaday.co.uk 

10th Feb 2013

Saturday 9th

It was as much trials day as the official version at Chltenham with big guns out wherever you looked, Ireland saw SIR DES CHAMPS win  along with the Bumper winner from last year CHAMPAGNE FEVER. It was also a case of enhancing a growing reputation when BOSTON BOB got outpaced and stayed on again to snatch an unlikely win, with the RSA (over a more suitable trip) his next port of call.

This side of the Irish sea MY TENT OR YOUR’S made a striking impression. Nicky Henderson continues to accumulate an embarrassment of riches as we head into the spring festivals and it will be as much a test of picking the right race for each candidate. Gold cup plans were firmly rubber stamped as SILVIANO CONTI stepped up in his ex stable mate’s race at Newbury, The DENMAN, noticed someone said on twitter that he would have “carried this lot” even at this age, he was a fantastic chaser. 

A well done to CHRISTIAN WILLIAMS who is back rode a winner at Uttoxeter, hope it is the first of many this season. He is too good of a jockey not to be riding winners…..

A quick note to say the member’s service finally got back on track after a near miss when TAROOQ scored at 7/2 for us, probably going to go to Southwell for tomorrow’s tip, with possible problems with heavy rain at Nass and Exeters brilliant card, hope they survive.

Back Monday.

Have a great weekend.

10th Feb 2013

Friday 8th

Some good stuff this afternoon as Bangor-On-Dee, Kempton and Newcastle (after passing a morning inspection) staged meetings. Action got under way at Bangor with a novices hurdle over 2m 1 f and it was Nicky Henderson’s GOLDEN HOOF, who won easily under Andrew Tinkler, 21 lengths was the margin of this demolition job and it will be interesting to see when, this son of Oscar, who is owned by golfer Lee Westwood and his manager Chubby Chandler, makes his debut in a handicap as judging by this rout whatever the handicapper does do, might not be enough…

 VIOLIN DAVIES followed up her Newbury race victory by taking the novices chase for mares, before ALDERLUCK finally won a race after many good races in defeating when taking the marathon 3mile 6f, handicap chase, for good conditional Mick Ennis.

Action came from the fantastic Newcastle where it was a good day for favourite backers as 4 went in on the trot whilst down at Kempton admirable mare ALASI won the graduation chase narrowly seeing off the Cheltenham bound CHAMPION COURT.

Tomorrow needs no introduction as it is Betfair Handicap hurdle day from Newbury with ample support from the Denman Chase, there is also good stuff from around Britain and Ireland but our tip is likely to come from Newbury’s feature and Wolverhampton for the members…

9th Feb 2013

Saturday 9th

It was as much trials day as the official version at Chltenham with big guns out wherever you looked, Ireland saw SIR DES CHAMPS win  along with the Bumper winner from last year CHAMPAGNE FEVER. It was also a case of enhancing a growing reputation when BOSTON BOB got outpaced and stayed on again to snatch an unlikely win, with the RSA (over a more suitable trip) his next port of call.

This side of the Irish sea MY TENT OR YOUR’S made a striking impression. Nicky Henderson continues to accumulate an embarrassment of riches as we head into the spring festivals and it will be as much a test of picking the right race for each candidate. Gold cup plans were firmly rubber stamped as SILVIANO CONTI stepped up in his ex stable mate’s race at Newbury, The DENMAN, noticed someone said on twitter that he would have “carried this lot” even at this age, he was a fantastic chaser. 

A well done to CHRISTIAN WILLIAMS who is back rode a winner at Uttoxeter, hope it is the first of many this season. He is too good of a jockey not to be riding winners…..

A quick note to say the member’s service finally got back on track after a near miss when TAROOQ scored at 7/2 for us, probably going to go to Southwell for tomorrow’s tip, with possible problems with heavy rain at Nass and Exeters brilliant card, hope they survive.

Back Monday.

Have a great weekend.

9th Feb 2013

New site up now see www.1tipaday.co.uk 

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